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MARTINGALE 90: PLAYING WITH THE PROBABILITIES

Posted by MA40, Monday 11 of June, 2018. <Versión en Español>

One of the most popular strategies in Casinos and websites of bets on Internet is the "Martingale System". This system is based on to double the bet every time you lose in any gambling which exists the 50% probabilities to win or lose.

This is a system in which you always should win apparently, this seems infallible. But it is not like this. This would be true if users to count with a unlimited balance to bet, but this will never happens.

The Martingale system fails due to it is based on the "Gambler´s Fallacy", which makes to think wrongly that the past events will affect to the future ones respect to random activities. In other words, it is like dices "to have a memory" and if some even numbers in a row have gotten several times, the gambler can think the probability to get an odd number is greater but it is not so, the probability continues being about 50%.

Another different thing is the probability to get for example 6 times in a row even numbers in a game of rolling the dice. This probability is 0.5 raised to the number of times (in this case 6), this is equal to 0.015625. This is a very low probability, but in a game which the dices are rolled a number raised of times, sooner or later the 6 times in a row of even numbers will get. And if the gambler is using the Martingale system and it is not having more money to bet a seventh time, they will lose what they have bet. We should have into account that every time we lose, we have to double the bet, thus this one is increasing exponentially.

Well... Having this understood, it occurs to me a variant improved of the Martingale system. Warning! This system is also not infallible, the only is that, this allows to decrease considerably the risk of losing at the expense of reducing the profit in every roll.

What Martingale 90 system consists in?

Before to write it, I will enumerate the features that gambling should have for which this system can be appropriate:

  • Gambling should allow to make bets of very low value, for example: 0.1 cent of Euro, 0.1 cent of Dollar, or now Bitcoin is becoming "fashionable", it allows one satoshi.

  • Gambling should allow to automate the bets, this means, once programmed, the computer can bet by itself.

  • Gambling should allow to be able to choose the probability to win or lose. In a rolling of dice, the probability to get an odd or even is 50%, this is invariable, but for example: if we use two dices, the probability to get a number less or equal to 10 (of the 12 possibles) will be 10 / 12 = 0.833333 against to 0.166666 to get an 11 or 12.

  • By last, gambling should allow to increase the bets and to restart them if you win or lose.

Martingale 90 System

The Martingale 90 system consists in to preset a gaming with a probability of profit of the 90 %, an increasing at losing of the 1,000% and a reset of the bet at winning (it means to return to the starting always when we win).

With this system, the payment betting houses offer usually is low (1.100x), so that in every bet we are winning a very small amount, because of this is, very important to be able to preset the game and let it to work by itself during a long time.

Making numbers...

At the following table, made through a spreadsheet, we can see the amount to bet, the necessary balance to continue gambling and the probability to lose again in any game in which we are using the "Martingale 90 system".

Only we have calculated just 6 bets (to lose 5 times in a row) because from there, the necessary balance to continue gambling, it is made too big. If anybody wants to risk more, they should make numbers by themselves.

  Amount to bet The necessary balance Probability to lose
 Starting bet 10 %, once = 0.1 
 Bet at losing by once 11  12  10 %, twice = 0.01 
 Bet at losing by twice 121  133  10 %, 3 times = 0.001 
 Bet at losing by 3 times 1,331  1,464  10 %, 4 times = 0.0001 
 Bet at losing by 4 times 14,641  16,105  10 %, 5 times = 0.00001 
 Bet at losing by 5 times 161,051  177,156  10 %, 6 times = 0.000001 

The amount to bet, having into account the increasing at losing is about 1,000%, it is calculated multiplying the bet amount previously by ((1,000 / 100) + 1), it means "11".

The necessary balance will be the summation of all what have been bet previously, starting by 1.

And the probability to lose, since in a play is of 0.1 (10 %), will be about (0.1) raised by the number of bets: 0.11, 0.12, 0.13, 0.14, 0.15 y 0.16.

Comparing the probability to lose at the sixth bet (10 % and 0.000001) with the traditional Martingale system (50 % to lose/win and to double the bet at losing), it could be said that is similar to the twentieth bet of the traditional system (50 % and 9.5 * 10-7), which requires a balance to be able to continue from 1,048,575 (much greater).

Conclusion

Using the Martingale 90 system, against to the traditional Martingale system, it is reduced too much the risk to lose, and the necessary amount to be able to continue gaming is also much smaller. Well now, remember a thing: in a very raised number of random events, the unfavorable streak will appear sooner or later.

Good Luck!

 
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